HAG: Fed makes it flat

Markets moved upwards today upon the Fed's action to raise interest rates 1/4 percent. A small percentage of economists had predicted a half-point increase. In this blog, I have coninually mentioned that Bernane will talk like an inflation hawk, but not act like one. The markets are not as sure about his actions as I am. Today, System HAG sold it's position in TLAB and is now flat.

Completed trade:

TLAB: 4.77%


Adding these trades to our totals:
100 trades
.6356% average gain per trade
15.89% total theoretical gain since inception (2/7/06).
NASDAQ composite on 2/7/06: 2244.96
NASDAQ change since 2/7/06: 3.12%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG Update

Market anxieties are beginning to build again as the Fed is poised to act this week and earnings season is about to start. System HAG makes it's first purchase in a week-and-a-half, buying TLAB.

No update: HAG and Z

The VIX index hits its highest level since early 2003 last week. This bodes well for System Z and System HAG: they should do better in a volatile market. As markets trade sideways this week, and as general market anxieties dissipate, both systems remain flat.

System Z mid-Month 3: $9749.32

Save for today's rebound, markets performed terribly over the past week. This type of market should be great for System Z, but the program did not fully take advantage of its opportunities. System HAG, our theoretical benchmark, gained about 6% today. System Z did worse mainly because I was on vacation Monday and Tuesday and not able to execute trades. Also, one stock that I thought I had bought yesterday (XLNX) never had it's order executed. As a result, over the last week the differential between System Z returns and NASDAQ returns slipped about a half percent to 11.5%.

System Z account value: $9,749.32
commissions paid: $560
maximum commissions should be: $224
which means I overpaid at least: $336
minimum account value corrected for obscene commissions: $10,085.32
account value if no commissions: $10,309

System Z actual return since 4/7: -2.51%
System Z corrected return since 4/7: .85%
System Z no-commission return since 4/7: 3.09%

Nasdaq on 4/7: 2339.02
Nasdaq return since 4/7: 8.34%

Difference between no-commission return and NASDAQ return since 4/7: 11.42%

Refer to post from 4/19 for explanation of "corrected return". Returns for a larger fund would fall somewhere between the "corrected" return and the "no-commission" return.

HAG: up 6% today

HAG sold all of it's remaining positions as market anxieties completely dissipated. Traders realized that maybe inflation targeting isn't that bad after all. A raise in rates now might save a few raises in the future. If the raise in rates slows the economy, Bernanke will also be quick to lower rates...

Completed trades (some 1/2-sized positions):

XLNX: 4.1%
ET: 11.25%
GLD (1/2): 2.74% (1.37%)
ET (1/2): 4.56% (2.28%)
WDC (1/2): 2.6% (1.3%)
RFMD (1/2): 6.59% (3.295%)

Adding these trades to our totals:
99 trades
.5938% average gain per trade
14.7% total theoretical gain since inception (2/7/06).
NASDAQ composite on 2/7/06: 2244.96
NASDAQ change since 2/7/06: 4.46%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: Hangin' Tough

Typical market rebound today. Most positions were sold.

Today, the program bought full positions in XLNX and ET. Half-sized positions in GLD, ET, WDC, and RFMD were held.

Completed trades:

MNST: 8.27%
AMD: 7.10%
BEAS: 2.04%
PAAS (1/2): 1.78% (.89%)
BHP (1/2): 3.99% (1.99%)
AKAM (1/2): 4.00% (2%)
MNST (1/2): 9.44% (4.72%)

Adding these trades to our totals:
95 trades
.3704% average gain per trade
8.80% total theoretical gain since inception (2/7/06).
NASDAQ composite on 2/7/06: 2244.96
NASDAQ change since 2/7/06: 7.04%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: Catch-up

I was away for most of Monday and Tuesday, so I wawnt to catch up on the trading over the last two days before I report on Wednesday's activity.

The market has continued to fall over the last few sessions as markets are beginning to adjust to Bernanke's verbal inflation targeting. The market is beginning to realize that interest rate rises are going to lead instead of follow, thereby keeping inflation at bay. I had hypothesized the opposite, because I thought that leading with interest rate rises might do more damage to the economy than a bit of inflation. Obviously, the damage is occurring, but maybe it will all be for the best?

Catching up on HAG activity:

On Monday, HAG continued to hold positions in BRCM and EMC from last Wednesday, and MNST and AMD from last Thursday. Additionally, it purchased BEAS. On Tuesday, the positions in BRCM and EMC were sold, and the postions in MNST, AMD, BEAS were held. Also, continued marketplace selling, especially in metal and oil stocks, led to many buy signals. Accordingly, 8 half-sized purchases were made: GLD, PAAS, BHP, ET, WDC, AKAM, MNST, RFMD.

Completed trades:

BRCM: .87%
EMC: 3.47%

Adding these trades to our totals:
92 trades
.4674% average gain per trade
10.75% total theoretical gain since inception (2/7/06).
NASDAQ composite on 2/7/06: 2244.96
NASDAQ change since 2/7/06: 7.66%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: Accounting

OK, here are the updates from the trades over the past week. I fell behind a couple of days because Blogger was having technical problems.

Right now, the program is long BRCM and EMC (which it bought two days ago), and MNST and AMD (which it bought yesterday). Two days ago, the program sold MNST (bought two days beforehand), yesterday it sold DRIV (bought two days beforehand), and today it sold SYNA and GLW. (bought one and two days earlier, respectively).

Completed trades:

MNST: 2.64%
DRIV: .64%
GLW: 1.46%
SYNA: 1.79%

Adding these trades to our totals:
90 trades
.526% average gain per trade
11.84% total theoretical gain since inception (2/7/06).
NASDAQ composite on 2/7/06: 2244.96
NASDAQ change since 2/7/06: 4.86%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: quick update

Blogger was down all of yesterday, and not working too well today. I'm late for an appointment, so I'm just going to get out the basics: Yesterday, the program sold MNST, held DRIV, and bought BRCM, EMC, and GLW. Today it sold DRIV, held BRCM, EMC, and GLW, and bought MNSR, SYNA, and AMD.

Accounting tomorrow.

System Z end Month 2: $9,964.78

System Z continues to trade a little and stay just about flat. However, the difference between the no-commission returns and the return for the NASDAQ continues to increase. In two months the differential has reached 12%!

System Z account value: $9,964.78
commissions paid: $475
maximum commissions should be: $190
which means I overpaid at least: $285
minimum account value corrected for obscene commissions: $10,249.78
account value if no commissions: $10,439.78

System Z actual return since 4/7: -.35%
System Z corrected return since 4/7: 2.50%
System Z no-commission return since 4/7: 4.40%

Nasdaq on 4/7: 2339.02
Nasdaq return since 4/7: 7.57%

Difference between no-commission return and NASDAQ return since 4/7: 11.97%

Refer to post from 4/19 for explanation of "corrected return". Returns for a larger fund would fall somewhere between the "corrected" return and the "no-commission" return.

HAG: Just one more buy

Markets continued to fall, but HAG lost no money as it only is holding one position. HAG continues to hold Monster until tomorrow, and buys Digital River today.

Mavericks!

Been busy the last week studying for the CFA exam, which was last Saturday. And I have Jury duty the next two days. So not much time to write. I have a big idea I want to flush out about the role of the maverick in portfolio management. It's definitely not a coincidence that the best investors, like the best entrepreneurs, tend be regarded as mavericks. What's odd is that most people who work in the investment field are not mavericks at all. More on this later.

For now, HAG wants to buy Monster Worldwide.