hag: UPDATE

AMGN and LSI are sold today, NTGR is bought.

Completed trades:

AMGN: .57%
LSI: 1.18%

2007 totals:
20 trades
.44584% average gain per trade
2.23% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: 2.03%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: No trades today

LSI and AMGN positions held

HAG: 2 buys

Today, HAG buys AMGN and LSI.

HAG: update

Today HAG sold the XMSR bought on Monday. It is now flat.

Completed trades:

XMSR: 3.80%

2007 totals:
18 trades
.39815% average gain per trade
1.79% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: .83%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: Sorting out the mistakes

I have to piece back together the trades over the last week because I erased last friday's post by accident.

On Tuesday, HAG sold the MRVL bought Friday and the NTAP bought on Monday. The AAPL bought last Thursday, and both the DELL and XMSR bought on Monday, were held. AMAT and CSCO were bought.

On Wednesday, the AAPL from last Thursday was sold, as was the DELL from Monday and the CSCO from Tuesday. The XMSR bought Monday, and the AMAT bought Tuesday were held.

Today, the AMAT bought on Tuesday was sold and the XMSR bought on Monday was held.

Completed trades:

MRVL: .54%
NTAP: 1.92%
AAPL: 2.66%
DELL: .12%
CSCO: 3.26%
AMAT: .12%

2007 totals:
17 trades
.6451% average gain per trade
2.74% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: .79%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: trades; accounting problem

There seems to be a problem with yesterday's post. I think I posted it on top of Friday's post, so Friday's post is lost and yesterday's post is on Friday. Will sort it out tomorrow. Today, the NTAP and MRVL are sold. Another lot of AMAT is bought, as is CSCO.

The post below originally appeared Monday:

This is a going to be a fun market to trade. Volatilty is increasing for the first time since last summer.

Today, HAG sells NVDA bought last Thursday. AAPL from last Thursday, and MRVL from last Friday, are held over. NTAP, XMSR, and DELL are bought today.

Completed trades:

NVDA: .66%

2007 totals:
11 trades
.817% average gain per trade
2.25% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: .67%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: update

This is a corrected post:

Today, HAG sells CSCO (bought Wednesday), and BRCM and RIMM (bought yesterday). NVDA and AAPL, bought yesterday, are held, and MRVL is bought.

Completed trades:

CSCO: 1.04%
BRCM: 2.13%
RIMM: 2.14%

2007 totals:
10 trades
.833% average gain per trade
2.08% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: 1.49%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: Finally some excitement

Market broke down pretty severely today, yet our program stayed ahead of the curve. The CBH bought on Tuesday was sold today. The CSCO bought yesterday was held. Today the program buys BRCM, RIMM, NVDA, and AAPL.

Completed trades:

CBH: .22%

2007 totals:
7 trades
.72857% average gain per trade
1.28% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: 1.16%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

Another HAG update

Csco bought today.

HAG

CBH bought today

HAG...

COP was sold today and HAG is flat for the weekend.

Completed trade:

COP: 3.25%

2007 totals:
6 trades
.81333% average gain per trade
1.22% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: 3.6%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: update

GG, bought last Friday, was sold today. COP was bought

Completed trade:

GG: 1.91%

2007 totals:
5 trades
.326% average gain per trade
.41% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: 2.90%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: update

No stocks were bought yesterday or today. The VC bought on Monday was sold yesterday. The NVDA bought on Friday and the MOT bought Monday were sold today. The GG bought on Friday was held.

Completed trades:

NVDA: 3.65%
MOT: 2.37%
VC: 1.29%


2007 totals:
4 trades
.885% average gain per trade
.885% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: 1.82%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: Good start

HAG completed it's first trade today by selling a position in PEIX that was bought on Thursday. GG and NVDA, bought on Friday, were held. VC and MOT were bought today.

Completed trade:

PEIX: .97%

2007 totals:
1 trade
.97% average gain per trade
.24% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: .95%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

HAG: Accounting over past 5 weeks

Since mid-November, System HAG has only made 14 trades. During this time, the VIX index, which is a measure of the market's volatility, dipped below 10 for the first time since late 1993. HAG's fortunes are very closely correlated to the markets volatilty, so these past few weeks were not very profitable. HAG and the NASDAQ both lost about 1% overall over these weeks.

All the completed trades are below. HAG bought PEIX on Thursday and GG and NVDA on Friday.

Completed trades (date completed):

GM (11/29) : 2.83%
CSCO (11/28): 4.77%
BRCM (11/30): 2.09%
TLAB (11/30): 2.05%
ODP (12/6): 1.37%
SLAB (12/4): 3.71%
F (12/8): 5.86%
SNWL (12/8): 2.04%
AAPL (12/8): 1.40%
VRTX 1 (12/15): 5.37%
VRTX 2 (12/15): .59%
MXIM (12/14): 1.29%
GBLC (12/20): 2.03%
AAPL (12/26): 1.68%
EBAY (12/26): 1.81%

Adding these trades to our totals:

182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain since inception (2/7/06).
NASDAQ composite on 2/7/06: 2244.96
NASDAQ change since 2/7/06: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

System Z end of year analysis: $8,923.98

This is a long overdue post for System Z. The goal over these months was to try to make a real profit despite the tremendous brokerage costs from actively trading a $10,000 account. This goal was not met.

In analyzing what what well and what went poorly over System Z's first 7 1/2 months, I am going to adjust our accounting method slightly. Previously, I had been adjusting commission costs based on the assumption that I was paying about 2.5 times what I should be paying in commission. Well, I've done a little research and found that most traders in my situation would pay about 3 to 4 dollars per thousand shares traded (though these costs could go down to as little as 1 dollar per thousand for an extremely active trader). Going forward, I will assume I pay 5 dollars per thousand shares traded. This will surely cover all exchange fees as well.

Making these adjustments, System Z traded about flat for the year. More analysis to follow.

System Z account value (end 2006): $8923.98
commissions paid: $1302.25
shares traded: 37,271
commission at $5 per thousand shares traded: $186
account value corrected for obscene commissions: $10040
account value if no commissions: $10226

System Z actual return since 4/7: -10.76%
System Z corrected return since 4/7: .4%
System Z no-commission return since 4/7: 2.26%

Nasdaq on 4/7: 2339.02
Nasdaq return from 4/7 to end of year: 3.25%