Thursday, March 15, 2007

HAG: Blows up; future bright; still beating market

I have not made a post in a few days. Meanwhile, there was a panic climax in the subprime market, centered on the impending bankruptcy of New Century Financing, a stock which HAG owned a position in. Though HAG tried to limit its risk exposure by buying only a 1/4 position, the risk was still so great that I felt uncomfortable operating the program as the losses stacked up. This is a huge issue that needs to be addressed, because System HAG had to forgo many trades that would have been extremely profitable in order to manage the risk of a single position. This is the exact situation this program does not want to be in. HAG wants to be able to trade all of the riskiest market situations without feeling the panic of any singular risk.

Today, HAG sold its position in NEW that was bought last Thursday. Loss on the position is over 60%. HAG also sold it's position in EMC last Friday that it bought last Wednesday. This position was flat. HAG bought no positions earlier this week, as it was temporarily halted, and today it buys a full position in RVBD.

Completed trades:

MA (bought last Wednesday, sold last Thursday): 3.05%
EMC (bought last Wednesday, sold last Friday): 0%
NEW(1/4; bought last Thursday, sold today): 64.95% (16.24%)


2007 totals:
32.75 trades
.08630% average gain per trade
.71% total theoretical gain since beginning of 2007
NASDAQ close at end of 2006: 2415
NASDAQ composite change since beginning of 2007: 1.56%

2006 results:
182 trades
.2899% average gain per trade
13.19% total theoretical gain from inception (2/7/06) to end of 2006.
NASDAQ composite change from 2/7/06 to end of 2006: 7.62%

Once again, the "total theoretical gain" assumes 25% of a portfolio was invested in each trading position. Half-sized positions assume only 12.5% was invested, and count as only 1/2 of a "completed trade". Buying power is limited to twice the value of the portfolio.

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